Russian attack in Ukraine: should we fear a domino effect for Africa?
Positive Minds | Positive Stories | Edition 028
Beware of the domino effect of the Ukrainian crisis on Africa
(This story was first published on my LinkedIn page)
After years of escalating tension and months of unsuccessful diplomatic attempts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, what the world had feared happened in the early hours of 24 February 2022: the Russian army attacked Ukraine.
An unprecedented series of sanctions and condemnations
Following the attack, and as expected, the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom launched the first targeted sanctions measures against the Russian economy and those close to the Kremlin. After Russia vetoed a draft UN Security Council resolution on 25 February, these initial measures were extended to affect virtually all segments of the Russian economy, including the freezing of Russian assets abroad and the withdrawal of most Russian banks from the Swift system (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication).
In the wake of the international condemnations and sanctions, several large corporations cut ties with Russia. These include technology giants (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Dell), car manufacturers (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, General Motors, Ford, Honda, etc. ), aviation (Airbus and Boeing), logistics and shipping (UPS, DHL, FedEx), energy (TotalEnergies, BP, Exxon Mobil), sportswear and fashion (Nike, Adidas, Puma, H&M), film and television (Disney, Warner Bros and Sony Pictures); the list goes on. Did these big corporations really have a choice? In any case, doing business with Russia has become very risky if not dangerous.
Concerned about the humanitarian and security situation in Ukraine, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution on 2 March demanding the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. Major humanitarian and development organisations have followed the lead of the United Nations in condemning the Russian attack in Ukraine. For example, in a statement issued on 2 March, my organisation, the IRC, highlights the unacceptable violations of international humanitarian law in Ukraine. David Miliband, our President and CEO, strongly condemned the discrimination and unfair treatment of refugees, in particular the pushbacks of individuals of African and Asian origin at the Ukrainian border.
Humanitarian needs increasing at an alarming rate
The numbers are frightening. Millions of people have been displaced since 24 February. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reports that more than 1.3 million people have fled to neighbouring countries, almost half of whom - about 650,000 people - have arrived in Poland. The number of civilian casualties continues to rise. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), between 24 February and 4 March, there were at least 1,058 civilian casualties.
Humanitarian needs are increasing at an alarming rate. The UN estimates that 12 million people inside Ukraine will need relief and protection, while more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees may need protection and assistance in neighbouring countries in the coming months. Fears are growing that thousands of people will be killed and millions more will be forced to flee their homes to seek refuge in neighbouring countries.
Global solidarity to address the humanitarian crisis
Europe quickly mobilised to support the Ukrainian population affected by the crisis. In an unprecedented display of solidarity, the old continent opened its doors and arms wide to Ukrainian families fleeing their country, offering them asylum and immediate protection including the right to live and work in the EU for three years. Other countries outside Europe, including the United States, have expressed their willingness to host Ukrainian refugees on their soil.
On 1 March, the UN and humanitarian partners launched coordinated emergency appeals for a total of $1.7 billion to provide urgent humanitarian assistance to IDPs in Ukraine and refugees in neighbouring countries. Many donors, both public and private, have pledged to contribute.
The IRC is not left out. It has launched a humanitarian appeal to provide food, medical care and emergency assistance to displaced children and families in Ukraine.
All over the world, we are witnessing a mobilisation and a surge of solidarity not seen since the Second World War. Let us hope that it will be sustainable and above all replicated to other crises and human suffering around the world, notably in Africa.
But in the meantime, we must counter the domino effect of the Ukrainian crisis in Africa and elsewhere in the world
The effects of the international sanctions against Russia were immediately felt by the Russian economy and people, but not only. The shockwave is being felt far beyond Russia's borders. Oil and gas prices have soared. Commodity markets are disrupted. The world's stock markets are in turmoil. There is a ripple effect that affects all sectors of the global economy with potentially catastrophic consequences for the African continent, especially fragile and conflict-affected countries.
Indeed, as an ancient proverb of the Kikuyu people in Kenya teaches us, "when the elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers"; in other words, when the big ones fight, it is the little ones that suffer most.
One of the little ones is Africa, our beloved continent so remote from the Ukrainian crisis, but whose consequences on its countries and their populations are so close and so imminent:
Political and diplomatic consequences: on 2 March, 141 countries supported the UN General Assembly resolution to condemn Russia's attack on Ukraine. 34 countries abstained, of which 17 countries in Africa, or half. The countries that abstained could pay a political and diplomatic price in the future.
Economic consequences: the world is still recovering from the impact of Covid-19; Africa is not yet. The domino effect of the Ukraine crisis could plunge the world economy into a new recession with dramatic consequences for the economies of many African countries that are heavily dependent on official development assistance.
Humanitarian consequences: the Ukrainian crisis is a human tragedy that deserves the attention and support of the whole world; the same is true for the crises in Africa and elsewhere in the world. This crisis, however serious, should not divert the world's attention from the DRC and the Great Lakes, from Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin, from Mali and the central Sahel, from Somalia and the Horn of Africa, from Ethiopia, from Darfur, from South Sudan, etc. The African populations in these crisis countries and regions must not be sidelined by the Ukrainian crisis. The African continent must not be an adjustment variable in the Ukrainian crisis.
Will the world mobilise and stand in solidarity with Africa to counter the domino effect of the Ukrainian crisis and support the millions of vulnerable people affected by the multiple and protracted crises on the continent?
As a chronic positive thinker and a born optimist, I would like to think so. What about you?
