Access to COVID-19 vaccine: a three-speed race and what it means for Africa.
Positive Minds | Positive Stories | Edition 026
On 3 June 2021, David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, and Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued a joint statement to the G7 concerning access to COVID vaccines for developing countries.
They repeated a reality we all know: “the coronavirus pandemic will not end until everyone has access to vaccines, including people in developing countries”; simply put: no one is safe until everyone is safe. “Distributing vaccines more widely is both an urgent economic necessity, and a moral imperative;” they added.
Nearly two months later, their call to action on COVID vaccine access for developing countries has not gained traction, yet. In the meantime, the vaccine inequality is growing and threatens global economic recovery; the IMF warned.
As of 29 July 2021, more than 4.07 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide, or 53 doses for every 100 people. However, there is a big disparity between nations and continents. 84% of doses worldwide have been administered in high- and upper-middle-income countries. Only 0.3% of doses have been administered in low-income countries.
As the graph above shows, we are now living in a three-speed world to access COVID vaccine: few countries are flying, some are driving and the majority are walking at the pace of a chameleon.
Advanced economies have embarked their populations in aircrafts and are flying at the speed of sound to access the COVID vaccine. In Europe, for example, 85 out of 100 people have received at least one dose of vaccine. In North America, the figure is 80 out of 100 people. Many of these countries are now considering a third dose to "boost protection", especially against the Delta variant —reportedly 60 percent more transmissible than earlier variants. Israel has become the first country in the world to decide on the use of a third dose of the Pfizer vaccine for over-60s, a move many advanced economies are likely to follow suit shortly.
Emerging markets are driving as fast as they can. They may not be moving as fast as the advanced economies, but they are moving at a reasonable pace. Asia and South America, which are home to most emerging countries, have administered at least one dose of vaccine to 61% and 56% of their populations respectively.
Meanwhile, low-income countries, most notably those in sub-Saharan Africa, are walking at the pace of a chameleon in the vaccine race. They heavily rely on COVAX –a worldwide initiative aimed at equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines– which aims to provide two billion doses by the end of the year. The initiative is behind schedule. As of 27 July, It has shipped only 152.8 million doses (or less than 8% of the two billion target) to 137 countries and territories. As a result, less than 5% of Sub-Saharan Africa population have received one dose of vaccine. With India’s decision to ban export of vaccines due to fresh outbreak of pandemic at home, vaccine stocks are running out in many African countries at a time when more vaccine is needed to counter the third wave and control the spread of Delta variant of the virus.
The runout of vaccine stocks combined with the loosening of restrictive measures (such as curfews and compulsory masking) creates an enabling environment for the continuous and dangerous spread of the virus in Africa.
Should we still be optimistic? Yes, we should and for 3 main reasons.
First, infection and mortality remain significantly lower in Africa compared to the rest of the world.
Globally, as of 30 July 2021, there have been over 196.55 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 4.2 million deaths (Ref. to WHO COVID-19 Dashboard). On the same date, Africa ─home to 17% of the world's population─ had 4.9 million confirmed cases or less than 2.5% of the global total and 116,100 cumulative deaths or 2.76%. It should be noted, however, that the mortality rate of the virus is slightly higher in Africa, at 2.37 deaths per 100 infected persons vs. a global average of 2.13.
Second, Africa is not waiting for the world to come to its rescue; it is joining forces to fight the pandemic.
The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have been at the forefront of the fight against COVID-19 on the continent. They have championed several initiatives including:
Africa CDC Vaccination Portal: for the latest updates on progress made in vaccinations across the continent;
African Union COVID-19 Response Fund: which aims to raise resources to strengthen the continental response to COVID-19; and
COVID-19 Africa Pool Procurement Portal: the Africa Medical Supplies Platform prioritising products made in Africa.
On 28 March, the African Union (AU), through the African Vaccine Acquisition Trust (AVAT) signed an agreement with Johnson & Johnson for 400 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines. And more recently, on 8 June, Mastercard Foundation and the Africa CDC have signed an agreement to deploy $1.3 billion over the next three years to acquire and deliver vaccines across the continent.
Furthermore, there are a few initiatives to strengthen vaccine research and development in Africa. In this regard, Pfizer and BioNTech have signed an agreement with South Africa to manufacture their COVID-19 vaccine in the country. Such a move could significantly increase the availability of doses across the continent from 2022. Amid a shortage of vaccines and a third wave of coronavirus infections sweeping Africa; Senegal, the EU, the United States, several European governments, and other partners, signed an accord on 9 July to kickstart vaccine production at the Pasteur Institute in Dakar.
Third, global solidarity, however modest and slow, is underway and is irreversible.
The People’s Vaccine Alliance ─a coalition of organisations and activists united under a common aim of campaigning for a ‘people’s vaccine’ for COVID-19─ has laid out 5 steps to end vaccine apartheid. Rich countries are listening and are acting.
For example, on 5 May, US President Biden backed the World Trade Organization proposal to waive intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines. Even if Biden backing has not yet yield concrete results, his move put pressure on the big pharmaceutical firms to be more open to making compromises.
More recently, on June 14, G7 leaders have pledged one billion COVID vaccine doses to poor countries as a “big step towards vaccinating the world”. As host of the summit, British Prime Minister said “the world was looking to [G7 leaders] to reject some of the selfish, nationalistic approaches that marred the initial global response to the pandemic and to channel all [their] diplomatic, economic and scientific might to defeating COVID for good”.
Yes, the situation is dire. The third wave is now hitting the continent. The Delta variant is spreading. Vaccine stocks are running low. Many countries have fallen into recession. Unemployment, especially among young people and women, is rising. And the living conditions of citizens are fast deteriorating.
However, there is still hope because infection and deaths are still lower in Africa, the AU, Africa CDC and African states are working hand in hand, and there is growing (although still modest) global solidarity.
As one of my colleagues said to me,
“Something good can come from an unfortunate situation, and it wouldn’t be the first time in the history of humanity. COVID-19 pandemic is the turning point to deal with extreme inequality in the world. The world must seize the opportunity.”
