Africa and the Coronavirus: wrong or delayed prognosis?

Positive Minds | Positive Stories | Edition 018

People have predicted millions of deaths from COVID-19 in Africa ... they were wrong.

When the first diagnosed patient (patient zero) of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) was identified on 1 December 2019 in Wuhan, in Hubei Province, central China; the world had little idea of the global disruption the virus would cause.

From the date the first case was reported in Wuhan, it took less than 3 months for the virus to spread across the world, affecting every continent; and profoundly shaping our world, for good and I hope for better. All sectors of the economy have been affected; social relations redefined, and labour re-engineered.

 In Africa, the first COVID-19 case was reported in Egypt on 14 February 2020. A series of apocalyptic predictions for the continent immediately followed. Thankfully, they were not materialised.

 Indeed, according to figures reported to the WHO, as of 26 December, Africa, which accounts for around 17% of the world's population, had fewer than 1,780,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 or 2.3% of the global total of over 78,383,000. Of the 1,740,390 deaths caused by the virus worldwide, less than 40,000 were recorded in Africa, i.e. 2.2% of the total. Although the recent increase in COVID-19 cases in a few African countries is of great concern, Africa has shown greater resilience to COVID-19 and avoided the apocalypse.

How do we explain the resilience of the continent to COVID-19? Many hypotheses have been made. Among these, the continent's young population and a favourable climate were frequently cited. Others praised most African governments' rapid action and good community health systems, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and some West African states, which have learned lessons from the Ebola epidemic.

Whatever the reasons of Africa low cases of COVID-19, there is a good story to tell about the continent and the pandemic; a story we should all be proud of; a story we should all celebrate and welcome as the best end-of-year gift as we welcome 2021 and say goodbye to 2020, one of the worst years of humanity. 

People are now predicting the worst economic recession in Africa with disastrous consequences for the poorest households ...

Experts are unanimous: the economic impact, direct and indirect, of COVID-19, will be unprecedented, and probably more devastating than its health impact.

Indeed, in September 2020, the ILO predicted that the loss of working hours in the last quarter of 2020 would amount to 8.6 per cent, or 245 million jobs worldwide. The IMF has forecast that the world economy will contract by 4.4 per cent in 2020 ─ more than the combined GDP of African countries (about 3% of global GDP). With its economy contracting by an average of 3 per cent, sub-Saharan Africa will experience its first recession in 25 years.

For our beloved continent, the causes of the recession are manifold. The main culprit is endogenous: the lockdown measures to control the spread of the virus, which have had a negative effect on economic growth. But there are also exogenous causes such as the decrease in migrant remittances or the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI). According to the World Bank, for the first time in decades, international migration will slow down in 2020. As a result, migrant remittances are expected to fall by 14% in 2021 (6% for sub-Saharan Africa). The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), for its part, estimates that FDI flows to Africa fell by 28% to $16 billion in the first six months of the year compared to $23 billion in the first half of 2019. This trend is likely to continue in 2021. 

Africa has proven them wrong about the health impact of COVID-19; it may prove them wrong about its economic impact.

 Africa has always shown extraordinary resilience in the face of crises and epidemics. History is there as a witness.

 Let’s take the example of the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. This epidemic has infected more than 28,000 people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, including 11,310 deaths, according to the latest WHO situation report published on 26 May 2016. According to an analysis of the World Bank, its overall impact on Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone has been estimated at 2.8 billion dollars.

However, at the peak of the Ebola epidemic, the apocalypse had also been predicted. Initial estimates from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) predicted that by the end of December 2014, less than a year after the start of the epidemic, there would have been about 226,000 cumulative cases in Liberia alone, an infection rate of more than 6%. By the end of the epidemic in 2016, Liberia had registered only 10,600 cases or about 5% of the predicted number. In its most pessimistic scenario, the World Bank had estimated loss of GDP in West Africa due to the Ebola virus at US$25.2 billion. Fortunately, this scenario did not materialise.

Can we nevertheless draw a parallel between Ebola and COVID-19? This is probably premature. Are the lessons learned from Ebola good reasons to remain positive and optimistic? As a born optimist and chronic positive thinker, my answer is “definitely yes”.

But let’s make no mistake, the situation is dire. African countries and people must remain mobilised to defeat COVID-19 and mitigate its economic impact on the continent. This is particularly important as Africa is likely to wait a little longer to vaccinate its population against COVID-19. In fact, People's Vaccine Alliance warns that 9 out of 10 people in developing countries, mostly in Africa, are set to miss out on COVID-19 vaccine next year.

Nevertheless, despite the challenges of obtaining the vaccine, I hope and pray that Africa's COVID-19 prognosis is wrong.

 Happy New Year 2021 to all.